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Teaching
Guide |
This teaching guide is
designed to complement the 20-minute video, Go Figure. Click here to request
the video. Please note that video supplies are limited and may no longer be
available.
Guess What?
Learn from the Estimation Pros
In everyday life, estimations have to be made in countless
situations. Is there time for a soft drink before the next class? Can I stop for a
sandwich and still make it to the movie on time? If I watch TV tonight, is there time to
do that math assignment in the morning? The Go Figure video mentions a more complex
use of estimating -- determining the population of our nation.
Census Sense
Estimation is used in some businesses, such as the fast food industry, because the number
being sought will not be known until after the fact. However, in other areas, estimation
is used because the number being sought is either too large to count or immeasurable for
some reason. That's why sampling is often used in census taking.
In the United States, for example, it would be impossible to go door to door and count
every person. The U.S. Census Bureau now sends census questionnaires to every household in
the country. If every household returned the form, the census would be complete. Yet, many
choose not to participate. Therefore, the Census Bureau must account for those who do not
return the forms by making estimations.
After a flurry of controversy over accuracy of the 1990 population count, the Census
Bureau is vowing to make Census 2000 the most accurate in history. To accomplish this,
citizens will be given multiple opportunities to respond, including an initial mailing, a
reminder card, forms available at public locations, and a toll-free telephone number. The
Census Bureau also is planning an advertising campaign, and census organizers will contact
state, local and tribal governments for help in boosting participation.
The sampling plan requires direct contact with 90 percent of all housing units. An
accurate listing of all addresses in every census tract will be key in determining if 90
percent has responded. A random sample of housing will then be selected that will
represent the number and characteristics of those who did not respond.
An accurate census is important since population figures determine the number of
governmental representatives an area will have.
Who's Watching
What?
Estimation also is often used to count how many people are doing what. How else could it
be determined how many people watched the last episode of "Seinfeld?" Going door
to door asking, "What TV programs did you watch last night?" would be costly and
time-consuming. Thus, TV ratings are reached by estimation.
One method used to collect viewing data is the diary. Sample families across the
country are asked to keep diaries detailing which TV programs they watch. At the end of
the week, the diaries are mailed to a rating company where they are calculated and
compared. The resulting numbers determine the placement of billions of dollars in TV
advertising each year, proof that estimating plays a critical role in the success of some
businesses.
Estimation gives insight into numbers that normally would not be accessible, and many
numbers we depend on every day, from unemployment rates to the current price of gasoline,
are derived from estimations.
Grocery Shopping
A routine trip to the grocery store, for example, definitely can illustrate the value of
estimating. Which groceries must be bought now, and which ones can be purchased later?
Let's see; the milk jug is empty, only a few crumbs linger in the cereal box, and the
grapes have turned to raisins. Two slices of bread remain; unfortunately, both have turned
green. The ketchup bottle has been flip-flopped, pounded, and shaken until not an ounce is
left. Also there are no eggs, butter, soda, and paprika. All these to buy and only X
dollars to spend.
Actually, the checkbook is still at home next to the forgotten grocery list. An ATM
card and a vague memory of the checking balance will have to suffice. This calls for some
major estimating.
Grocery shopping, whether for one person or a large family, can be a real task, but
just imagine the estimation skills it takes to feed hundreds of people and keep
plenty of food on hand. That's what managers of fast food restaurants across the country
have to do on a daily basis.
For most restaurants, a delivery truck runs two to three times per week. Managers must
order enough food to last until the next delivery. At the same time, over-ordering creates
problems because the food can spoil before it is used.
Predicting by the
Past
This is a difficult balancing act in an industry where sales vary depending on a variety
of factors including the weather, day of the week and competitors. Therefore, in the fast
food industry, the future is predicted by looking at the past.
Restaurant managers often use sales projections based on data from previous years'
sales in a particular month. However, a store's overall sales may have increased or
decreased since last year, so managers also must look at sales for last month and last
week.
How Many Burgers?
Having enough food in stock is only half the battle. Restaurant managers also must decide
how much food to prepare throughout the day. Obviously, more food is required for lunch
and dinner rushes than at any other time. For this reason, most restaurants keep a record
of hourly sales for every day of the week. Managers can analyze a particular hour's sales
for the past several weeks and get an average. They then use preestablished formulas to
decide how much food needs to be prepared for that hour.
Sources
United States Census 2000. U.S. Census Bureau. 11 August
1998. Online. Netscape.
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Last Updated: 02/16/03
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